The initial impact of the COVID-19, social distancing and movement restrictions on crime in NSW, Australia.

The Canberra Branch of the Statistical Society of Australia invites you to its August branch meeting, featuring an online talk by Dr Joanna Wang from the University of Technology Sydney.

Abstract: The spread of COVID-19 has prompted Governments around the world to impose draconian restrictions on business activity, public transport, and public freedom of movement. The effect of these restrictions appears to vary from country to country and, in some cases, from one area to another within a country. This study examines the initial impact of the COVID-19 restrictions imposed in New South Wales by the State Government. We examine week-to-week changes in 13 categories of crime (and four aggregated categories) from 2 January 2017 to 28 June 2020. An interrupted time series approach with ARIMA specification was used to model the entire time series. Our results are broadly in accord with those of other studies, but we find no effect of the lockdown on domestic assault.